Posted on August 19, 2025September 29, 2025 by snkadmin Ireland in Focus: 15% U.S. Tariffs Challenge Pharma Exports Ireland has become the backbone of transatlantic medicine flows. The 15% U.S. tariff on EU pharmaceutical imports (White House Fact Sheet, July 28, 2025), effective August, ends decades of tariff-free medicine trade and adds new uncertainty. With Ireland producing APIs and finished drugs across immunology, oncology, and GLP-1 therapies, the stakes are high for U.S. patients and global supply chains. Introduction The United States relies heavily on Ireland for critical medicines and production inputs. Over the past two decades, a combination of factors including favorable tax policy (Tax Foundation Europe, January 14, 2025) has attracted nearly all of the world’s top pharmaceutical companies to set up large-scale operations in this island nation. The country’s manufacturing footprint spans the full spectrum of the value chain, from organic chemicals (including active pharmaceutical ingredients or APIs, intermediates, and excipients) to finished dosage forms (FDF). Ireland’s sites are deeply integrated into global supply lines for critical therapeutic categories, such as oncology, immunology, diabetes and metabolic disorders, rare diseases, and vaccines, henceforth, making it not only the manufacturing hub of the EU but also a linchpin in transatlantic medicine flows. US Imports of Finished Drugs and Organic Chemicals from Ireland Recent U.S. import data (U.S. Census Bureau) covering January 2024 through June 2025 highlights Ireland’s disproportionate contribution in supplying both APIs and finished drug products. In the first half of 2025, import volumes showed pronounced fluctuations – peaking in March, easing in April, and partially rebounding in May (Figure 1, 2 & 3). This surge aligns with President Trump’s Inaugural Address on January 20, 2025, where he first signaled new tariffs on foreign pharmaceuticals. The sharp March 2025 spike likely reflects companies front-loading shipments ahead of such measures. Later, on April 2, 2025 – “Liberation Day” – the administration formally imposed a 10% tariff on all imports while suspending reciprocal tariffs, giving countries a 90-day negotiation window (Ernst & Young Global Limited, April 11, 2025). Even though the pause, in effect from April 9, 2025, was set to expire on July 8, 2025, the administration extended it until August. The smaller rebound in May imports suggests additional stockpiling ahead of the original deadline. Imports of organic chemicals into the U.S. spiked sharply in March 2025 amidst ongoing tariff uncertainties. $23 billion worth of organic chemicals entered the U.S. in March 2025 (Figure 2), $20 billion of which came from Ireland. This pattern indicates that pharmaceutical companies advanced shipments to the U.S. to secure supply ahead of potential trade measures. The PPGH Surge: Unprecedented Growth Much of the organic chemical import spike from Ireland was driven by “Polypeptide, Protein & Glycoprotein Hormones” (PPGH, HS code 293719), a category that includes APIs for GLP-1 drugs (Figure 3). Over the past five years (Figure 4) , Ireland has been the primary supplier of PPGH to the U.S., accounting for an average of around 90% of the total import value (in USD billions) (Figure 4) . In H1 2025, U.S. Census data reflects this share climbed to an extraordinary 99%, effectively making Ireland the near-exclusive foreign source of these therapies for American patients. As per the same source (U.S. Census Bureau – USA Trade Online), the value of imports of PPGH from Ireland rose from $2.71 billion in H1 2024 to $42.81 billion in H1 2025 – a ~ 16X increase (Figure 5). The United States is one of the largest and fastest-growing markets for GLP-1 drugs (Grand View Research, November 7, 2024), with demand accelerating due to their expanding use beyond diabetes into obesity treatment and potential cardiovascular applications. The surge further supports the idea that pharmaceutical companies accelerated imports in the United States in anticipation of potential trade disruptions (The Irish Times, March 18, 2025). Blockbuster Drugs Ireland’s strategic importance to pharmaceutical supply chains is reinforced by the presence of virtually every leading manufacturer in the country. Companies such as Pfizer, Merck & Co., Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi, and Eli Lilly all operate significant API and FDF production facilities across Ireland. As a result, a long list of blockbuster medications rely on Irish production sites. Major blockbuster drugs, where Irish manufacturing sites contributing to U.S. pharmaceutical supply are: Tracking these supply chains in real time is possible through the QYOBO platform, which provides granular visibility into every step – from API manufacturing sites to FDF production and global distribution nodes. As shown in the attached supply chain analysis (Figure 6 & 7), QYOBO platform maps the manufacturing footprint, sourcing relationships, and site-level details that are critical for anticipating risks and ensuring continuity for these essential medicines. Infrastructure Investment (2020-2025) Ireland’s prominent role has been underpinned by an aggressive expansion of pharmaceutical manufacturing infrastructure in recent years. Since 2020, companies have announced a series of new facilities, plant expansions, and strategic acquisitions in Ireland, amounting to well over $6 billion in investment (Figure 8). This capital intensity reflects long-term commitments to Irish production: 2022 alone saw nearly $3 billion in announced projects (the largest single-year spike), including a large new Eli Lilly biologics plant (Eli Lilly Investor Relations, September 12, 2024) and major capacity expansions by other multinationals such as AbbVie (AbbVie Ireland Media Room, September 21, 2022) and SK Pharmteco (Pharmaceutical Commerce, June 15, 2022). In short, virtually every year since 2020 has featured significant capacity-building by pharma companies in Ireland, cementing the country’s status as a global manufacturing hub. In H1 2025, months before the official August announcement but amid growing expectations of new U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals, some companies began diversifying their production footprint. In April 2025, AbbVie announced that it would invest $10 billion over the next decade in four new U.S. production facilities for APIs, biologics, peptides, and medical devices (Fierce Pharma, April 25, 2025). Merck & Co., in the same month, committed $1 billion to build its first U.S. facility to produce Keytruda, its blockbuster cancer therapy, after previously manufacturing it overseas (Reuters, April 29, 2025). These moves, explicitly linked to preparing for possible sector-specific tariffs, reflect a broader shift from a purely global model toward more local capacity, as firms adapt to a trade environment where policy changes can disrupt supply overnight, highlighting the fragility of a once-stable pharmaceutical supply chain. Conclusion: Tariff Turbulence and Its Broader Impact As of August 2025, the U.S. has imposed a 15% tariff on pharmaceutical imports from the EU, directly hitting Ireland. For Ireland, this means exports become instantly more expensive, threatening its competitive edge and potentially slowing shipments. The H1 2025 surge in imports can be viewed as precautionary build-up of supply as companies are now mindful of lessons from the COVID-19 supply shocks. Longer term, sustained duties could push companies to shift some production to the U.S. or other regions. For the U.S., the tariff risks raising costs for medicines heavily sourced from Ireland, from cancer drugs to GLP-1 therapies, unless companies absorb the hit. In some cases, reduced shipments could increase shortage risks. While this could accelerate plans to boost domestic manufacturing, such capacity, especially for complex biologics, takes years to build. The result is higher costs and greater uncertainty in a supply chain that has long been seamless. Historically, pharmaceutical products were exempt from import tariffs, reflecting a global consensus to safeguard medicine supply chains. The new 15% U.S. duty marks a decisive break from that norm. As trade frictions reshape costs and sourcing strategies, the ability to track, analyze, and secure supply lines has never been more vital. QYOBO platform supports pharmaceutical companies by providing real-time visibility into API and FDF flows, along with early alerts on disruptions from Ireland and other key markets. One Platform. From Insight to Action. See how QYOBO transforms pharma decision-making with AI-driven insights. Get Your Demo Insights Latest company news and developments All News News 19 August 2025 15% U.S. Tariffs on EU Pharmaceuticals: Ireland’s Manufacturing Hub in Focus News 14 May 2025 How Tariff Uncertainty Is Reshaping U.S. Pharma Supply Chains
Posted on May 14, 2025September 29, 2025 by Lena Herrmann How Tariff Uncertainty Is Reshaping U.S. Pharma Supply Chains Rapid shifts in tariff policy have shaped the past weeks. While the pharmaceutical industry is largely spared from tariffs for now (sources: Yahoo Finance, April 3, 2025; Bloomberg, April 2, 2025; Fierce Pharma, April 2, 2025), the Trump administration launched an investigation into pharmaceutical imports under the national security-focused Section 232 on April 1st, setting the stage for potential tariffs on finished drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), to encourage more U.S.-based production (WSJ, April 14, 2025). On May 5, 2025, President Trump told reporters that he plans to unveil pharmaceutical-specific tariffs within the next two weeks (CNBC, May 5, 2025). QYOBO’s Tariff Tracker The high reciprocal “Liberation Day” tariff rates have been paused and replaced with a 10% baseline tariff for all countries (Figure 1). U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports had surged to 145% since Liberation Day (Figure 2), while China had raised duties on U.S. goods to 125% (CNBC, April 9, 2025). On May 12, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day suspension of most tariffs, jointly reducing reciprocal tariffs from 125% to 10% (CNBC, May 12, 2025). The U.S. will maintain its 20% “fentanyl levy,” which also applies to pharmaceutical imports, resulting in an effective 30% tariff on Chinese goods (CNBC, May 12, 2025; CNBC, April 12, 2025) (Figures 1 & 2). Tariffs on Chinese pharmaceutical imports are especially concerning for the pharmaceutical sector, which remains heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing. An analysis conducted via the QYOBO platform reveals that 87% of drugs sold on the U.S. market rely on Chinese starting materials. While the degree of dependency varies slightly by therapeutic area — antibacterials and analgesics at 84%, oncologics at 86% — the overall reliance remains consistently high and difficult to replace in the short term. Industry Responses Although largely shielded from direct tariffs, the pharmaceutical sector faces pressure from potential new tariffs and proposed drug pricing reforms like the “most-favored-nation” model. As of May 13, the S&P 500 Health Care Sector Index is down over 4% year-to-date (S&P Global), while the S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals Industry Index has fallen more than 7% (MarketWatch), despite stronger-than-expected Q1 profits from companies like Merck & Co. (Reuters, April 24, 2025). Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 rose on Tuesday, turning positive for 2025 with a 0.1% gain after rebounding from an earlier 17% decline amid U.S.-China trade tensions (CNBC, May 13, 2025) . Merck & Co. exemplifies how these macroeconomic headwinds are translating into company-specific cost pressures and strategic shifts. The company anticipates an additional $200 million in costs this year due to existing U.S. tariffs, including a 10% import tax and retaliatory measures from countries like China (The Guardian, April 24, 2025). This does not yet account for potential “major” tariffs on pharmaceutical imports recently announced by the Trump administration (The Guardian, April 24, 2025). The company’s primary exposure centers on its flagship oncology treatment, Keytruda (Figure 3). The API for Keytruda (Pembrolizumab) supplied to the U.S. market is primarily manufactured in Germany by Boehringer Ingelheim, with additional capacity in Ireland (MSD/Merck & Co.) and the United States (AstraZeneca). The finished dosage form (FDF) is produced in Ireland by MSD/Merck & Co. While Merck has stated it has sufficient U.S. inventory for this year (Reuters, April 24, 2025), the company is actively expanding its domestic manufacturing footprint. On April 29, 2025, Merck & Co. broke ground on a new $1 billion biologics facility in Delaware, designed to be the future U.S. manufacturing hub for Keytruda (Merck & Co., April 29, 2025). manufacturing footprint. On April 29, 2025, Merck & Co. broke ground on a new $1 billion biologics facility in Delaware, designed to be the future U.S. manufacturing hub for Keytruda (Merck & Co.). Several originator companies have already announced investments into new or existing U.S. facilities (see also our previous previous blogpost on tariffs), with Roche pledging $50 billion over the next five years (Reuters, April 22, 2025). Yet uncertainty surrounding the proposed pharmaceutical tariffs is deterring companies like Pfizer from further investing in U.S. manufacturing and R&D, as CEO Albert Bourla noted during the company’s first-quarter earnings call on April 29, 2025 (CNBC, April 29, 2025). The industry’s efforts to expand domestic manufacturing could also face obstacles, as the Trump administration moves to dismiss FDA staff responsible for critical inspections of new drug manufacturing sites (Reuters, April 24, 2025). Meanwhile, on May 5, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order directing the FDA to fast-track domestic drug manufacturing approvals through streamlined reviews and regulatory simplification (CNBC, May 5, 2025). Substances Currently not Excluded from Tariffs According to the fine print of the executive order, pharmaceuticals (finished drugs) and many, but not all, raw materials are largely exempt from current tariffs. APIs) that remain subject to tariffs include: Ibuprofen (previously highlighted in our last newsletter and on LinkedIn) Magaldrate Sodium salicylate Tariffs on these APIs have direct implications for U.S.-based finished dosage form (FDF) manufacturers that rely on foreign suppliers. U.S.-based manufacturers of Ibuprofen FDFs like Ascent (a subsidiary of Hetero Drugs) could face additional costs, as they primarily source their active ingredients from overseas suppliers (Figure 4). There is a larger list of key starting materials (KSM) and excipients that are currently not excluded. Glycerol, for example, is widely used as an excipient and solvent in cremes, ointments, gels, and syrups due to its moisturizing and stabilizing properties. The following U.S. FDA manufacturing sites rely on now-tariffed KSMs: Ampac Fine Chemicals Imports 2,2-Difluoropropionic acid, ethylbenzene, BF₃ acetic acid, and R-propylene carbonate from India. Polypeptide Group Operates two U.S. sites that import ethyl cyanohydroxyiminoacetate from China. Cambrex and Curia Import N-hydroxysuccinimide from China. For more information on which materials are currently not excluded from tariffs, feel free to reach out. Company manufacturing footprint The QYOBO platform offers comprehensive insights into the global manufacturing footprint of pharmaceutical companies, detailing site locations, operational roles, and compliance status, consolidated from over 19,000 regulatory filings. Eli Lilly’s manufacturing network spans a global footprint, with facilities in Spain, France, Italy, Ireland, China, and the United States (Figure 5). Eli Lilly is actively expanding its capacity through major investments: Alzey, Germany (Lilly Investors, November 17, 2023) Focus: New manufacturing site for injectables for Diabetes and obesity medication. Investment: $2.5 billion Jobs: ~1,000 Operational by 2027 Kobe, Japan (Pharma Japan, September 28, 2023; Bloomberg, June 6, 2024) Focus: New manufacturing building at Seishin plant, Kobe. Focus on Mounjaro. Investment: $45 million Operational by 2025 Limerick, Ireland (Lilly investors, September 12, 2024) Focus: New biologics manufacturing facility. Investment: ~$2 billion Jobs: ~450 Operational by 2026 Kenosha, Wisconsin (Lilly Investors, December 5, 2024) Focus: Expansion of a recently Nexus-acquired facility with a focus on injectables for diabetes and obesity medicines. Investment: ~$3 billion Jobs: ~750 Lebanon, Indiana (Lilly investors, May 24, 2024) Focus: New API manufacturing facility for Tirzepatide Investment: ~$9 billion Jobs: 900 Operational by 2026 Research Triangle Park, Durham (Lilly Investors, January 24, 2023) Focus: Site expansion for GLP1 medicines. Investment: $450 million Jobs: 100 Suzhou, China (Fierce Pharma, October 11, 2024) Focus: Site expansion for diabetes and obesity medicines. Investment: ~$200 million Jobs: ~120 Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 API production is concentrated in Kinsale (Ireland), Branchburg (US), and Indianapolis (US) (Figures 6 & 7). In addition, Eli Lilly partners with Corden Pharma (US), a full-service CDMO, for contract manufacturing of Tirzepatide API for the U.S. market. Navigating Tariff Uncertainty with QYOBO With tariff policies evolving rapidly, staying prepared is crucial. QYOBO helps pharmaceutical companies manage this uncertainty by pinpointing tariff exposure and highlighting where rising input costs or new opportunities may emerge. Our platform quantifies these shifts across your product portfolio based on global supply chain data. The EU plays an important role in U.S. finished drug imports, with Ireland standing out prominently (Figure 8). Although imports dipped slightly in January 2025, they rebounded strongly in February (Figure 9). Ireland’s strategic importance to pharmaceutical supply chains is further underscored by the presence of leading manufacturers such as Sanofi, Pfizer, Merck & Co., Johnson & Johnson, and Eli Lilly, all of which operate significant API and finished dosage form (FDF) production facilities across the country. Major blockbuster drugs, where Irish manufacturing sites contribute to U.S. pharmaceutical supply are: Ustekinumab (Stelara – immunology/psoriasis, Crohn’s disease) (Figure 11) MA Holder: Johnson & Johnson API manufacturing in Ireland and the Netherlands Daratumumab (Darzalex – oncology) MA Holder: Johnson & Johnson API manufacturing in the U.S., Denmark, Ireland, and South Korea Dupilumab (Dupixent – immunology/atopic dermatitis, asthma), MA Holder: Sanofi FDF manufacturing in Ireland, Germany, and France API manufacturing in the U.S. and Ireland Pembrolizumab MA Holder: Merck & Co. FDF and API manufacturing in Ireland GLP1s Tirzepatide and Dulaglutide MA Holder: Eli Lilly API and FDF manufacturing in Ireland Nirmatrelvir (part of Paxlovid) (Figure 12) MA Holder: Pfizer API and FDF manufacturing in Ireland Navigating Tariff Uncertainty with QYOBO With tariff policies evolving rapidly, staying prepared is crucial. QYOBO helps pharmaceutical companies manage this uncertainty by pinpointing tariff exposure and highlighting where rising input costs or new opportunities may emerge. Our platform quantifies these shifts across your product portfolio based on global supply chain data. One Platform. From Insight to Action. See how QYOBO transforms pharma decision-making with AI-driven insights. Get Your Demo Insights Latest company news and developments News 19 August 2025 15% U.S. Tariffs on EU Pharmaceuticals: Ireland’s Manufacturing Hub in Focus News 14 May 2025 How Tariff Uncertainty Is Reshaping U.S. Pharma Supply Chains
Posted on April 1, 2025September 30, 2025 by Lena Herrmann U.S. Pharmaceutical Supply in the Context of Recent Tariff Plans The U.S. government’s 2025 tariff policy marks a major shift by introducing a 20% tariff on pharmaceuticals imported from China, products that were previously exempt under the WTO Pharmaceutical Agreement. Additional tariffs targeting imports from the EU and India are under consideration as of April 2025. QYOBO is closely tracking these developments. Leveraging data from the QYOBO platform, we analyze the potential implications of the new tariff regime on U.S. pharmaceutical supply security, global supply chain dynamics, and strategic risks and opportunities for pharmaceutical companies. Tariffs could lead to higher drug prices, supply disruptions, and manufacturing shifts. However, generics manufacturers may face greater challenges adapting due to cost constraints and limited margins. QYOBO’s Tariff Tracker As of March 4, a 20% tariff applies to all pharmaceutical products imported from China. While tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada were initially planned, they have been paused for goods that meet the USMCA rule of origin. A new wave of tariffs is expected to be announced by April 2, targeting the so-called “Dirty 15.” Although the full list has not been released, the countries with the largest U.S. trade deficits will presumably be included. The EU, India, and Japan are widely expected to be affected, given the scale of their trade surpluses with the U.S. (Wall Street Journal, 2025; Fortune, 2025) An overview of current and expected tariffs is visualized in the QYOBO Tariff Tracker (Figure 1). U.S. Pharmaceutical Trade Balance and Key Suppliers The U.S. pharmaceutical market remains highly dependent on imports for both finished medicines and raw materials. In 2024 (Figures 2 and 3): Finished pharmaceutical imports totaled $212 billion, with the EU accounting for 60%, followed by Switzerland (9%), Singapore (7%), India (6%), and China (4%) Pharmaceutical raw material imports reached $58 billion, led by the EU (57%), with China (12%), Switzerland (8%), Singapore (7%), and India (5%) following On the export side (Figures 2 and 3): The U.S. exported $94 billion in finished pharmaceuticals, primarily to the EU (42%), China (10%), Japan (9%), Canada (7%), and the UK (6%) Pharmaceutical raw material exports totaled $28 billion, with top destinations being the EU (50%), Mexico (9%), Japan (8%), Canada (6%), and China (5%) The “Dirty 15” – presumably countries with the largest U.S. trade deficits – account for (Figure 4): 87% of total U.S. finished drugs import value and 79% of export value 88% of U.S. raw material imports and 86% of exports This illustrates the substantial exposure of U.S. pharma trade to upcoming tariff measures. The U.S. recorded significant trade deficits in 2024 (Figure 4): $117 billion for finished pharmaceuticals $30 billion for raw materials The largest deficit is with the EU, especially Ireland, which holds the highest trade surplus with the U.S (Figure 5 and 6). With China, the U.S. had a $1.7 billion surplus in finished drugs but a $5,6 billion deficit in raw materials. In contrast, the U.S. maintains a trade surplus in both categories with Canada, Mexico, and Taiwan (Figure 5 and 6). U.S. Market Exposure of Key Companies Many leading pharmaceutical companies rely heavily on the U.S. market (Figure 7). Among originators, Bristol Myers Squibb (70%), Eli Lilly (64%), Novo Nordisk (63%), and Pfizer (61%) generate the largest share of their revenues from the U.S., while AstraZeneca (40%), Hikma (31%), and Bayer (28%) have a lower reliance. In the generics sector, companies such as Teva (49%), Aurobindo (48%), Dr. Reddy’s (47%), and Zydus (46%) derive a significant portion of their revenues from the U.S., whereas Divi’s (14%) and Torrent (10%) have a more limited presence in the market. However, the impact of tariffs depends on a company’s manufacturing footprint – insights the QYOBO platform provides through its comprehensive supply chain intelligence. Johnson & Johnson, for example, maintains production sites across the EU, Switzerland, Israel, Puerto Rico, and the U.S (Figure 8). In the case of Ustekinumab, the company’s reliance on European manufacturing facilities places the product at high risk of tariff-related cost increases (Figure 9). Industry Response The prospect of U.S. tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals has revived discussions about reshoring drug manufacturing. While some originator companies are expanding domestic production, generics manufacturers so far have little incentive to invest in U.S. facilities. Much will depend on whether the tariffs are temporary or signal a long-term policy shift, something that remains uncertain for now. Some companies are investing in U.S. manufacturing, while others are optimizing existing capacity: Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla highlighted the company’s ability to shift production domestically, stating, “We have 13 manufacturing sites in the US … if something happens, we will try to mitigate by transferring from manufacturing sites outside, to manufacturing sites here, the things that can be transferred quickly.” (Business Insider, 2025) Eli Lilly plans to more than double its U.S. manufacturing investment since 2020, exceeding $50 billion across four new facilities. (Lilly Investor Relations, 2025) Johnson & Johnson announced to increase U.S. investment to $55 billion including four new manufacturing sites. (Johnson & Johnson, 2025) Novo Nordisk is investing $4.1 billion in a new facility in North Carolina, doubling its U.S. manufacturing footprint. CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen acknowledged their “relatively robust setup,” but emphasized that Novo is not “immune” to tariffs. “We still have products moving across borders like most global companies,” he said, noting that “there’ll be some short-term impact as we mitigate the impact of tariffs.” (Bloomberg, March 2025) Generic firms like Sandoz expressed that the U.S. is not currently an appealing environment to make large-scale, long-term capital investments, especially those that take years to deliver. Sandoz CEO Richard Saynor pointed to deeper structural issues in the generics market: “There’s little point in investing in increased manufacturing… unless there are fundamental changes to how drugs are purchased.” (Bloomberg, March 2025) United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) Exemptions Under current USMCA Rules of Origin (USMCA, Rules of Origin), Canadian and Mexican pharmaceutical manufacturers can import Chinese APIs tariff-free and process them into finished drugs, qualifying these products as North American. In contrast, U.S. manufacturers importing the same Chinese APIs directly face a 20% tariff imposed during the Trump administration. As a result, these U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have effectively placed domestic pharmaceutical manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage for the time being. Impact on Drug Availability and Pricing The pharmaceutical supply chain is already under pressure from persistent drug shortages and pricing challenges, particularly in the generics market. New tariffs introduce further uncertainty. As Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen cautioned, “If you put tariffs on [generic medicines], I have a hard time seeing that that is not going to lead to other shortages of medicine or increased pricing in general.”(Bloomberg, March 2025) Companies affected by higher import tariffs are likely to pass increased costs on to consumers and payers, resulting in rising drug prices across the board. For generics manufacturers, who operate on especially thin margins, a 25% tariff may render certain products unprofitable (Figure 10). This could lead to supply disruptions if manufacturers choose to discontinue affected products. In markets with a concentrated supplier base, such withdrawals heighten both pricing pressure and the risk of shortages. Adjusting supply chains takes time, even as reports suggest U.S. regulators may streamline approvals for domestic production. (Handelsblatt, 2025) Qualification of a new supplier typically takes 12 to 18 months, meaning supply disruptions could extend into the medium term. Conclusion and Key Takeaways The U.S. has introduced a 20% tariff on pharmaceutical imports from China, with additional tariffs expected on April 2 for the so-called “Dirty 15”, likely including countries with the largest U.S. trade deficits such as the EU and India U.S. pharmaceutical imports rely heavily on countries subject to current or potential tariffs, particularly the EU, China and India Few originator companies, such as Novo Nordisk and Johnson & Johnson, have announced significant U.S. manufacturing investments, while generics manufacturer Sandoz remains reluctant to invest amid uncertainty USMCA tariff exemptions allow Canadian and Mexican FDF manufacturers to avoid tariffs on Chinese APIs, giving them an advantage over U.S. manufacturers Higher drug prices and potential supply shortages are likely, especially in the generics market where tariffs cannot be as easily absorbed compared to high-margin originator products One Platform. From Insight to Action. See how QYOBO transforms pharma decision-making with AI-driven insights. Get Your Demo Insights Latest company news and developments News 19 August 2025 15% U.S. Tariffs on EU Pharmaceuticals: Ireland’s Manufacturing Hub in Focus News 14 May 2025 How Tariff Uncertainty Is Reshaping U.S. Pharma Supply Chains
Posted on February 17, 2025September 30, 2025 by Lena Herrmann QYOBO API1000 Price Index – 64% of Prices Dropped in 2024 Amid ongoing shifts in the global pharmaceutical market — including increasing regulatory scrutiny, raw material shortages, and evolving geopolitical tensions — the industry continues to navigate a landscape of uncertainty. In 2024, global API prices have largely trended downward, with QYOBO’s platform tracking these changes for thousands of APIs, excipients, intermediates and chemicals. This analysis describes API price fluctuations, highlights shifts across therapeutic categories, and provides AI-driven price forecasts for the coming months. QYOBO Price Index: Two-Years Overview The QYOBO Price Index provides a comparative view of API price trends on a year-on-year basis (Figure 1). Between 2022 and 2023, API prices dropped by 5%, and continued to decline by another 4% between 2023 and 2024 (without adjusting for inflation). This sustained decrease is driven by the post-pandemic stabilization of supply chains, increased competition among API manufacturers, and regulatory efforts to control drug prices.1,2,3 As pharmaceutical companies adapt to changing market conditions, price transparency and strategic sourcing become increasingly important. QYOBO closely monitors these shifts to deliver timely insights for clients. Price Trend: 2024 vs. 2023 for the Top 1,000 APIs A deeper analysis of the 1,000 most commonly tracked APIs (which together constitute the API1000 index) on the QYOBO platform indicates that 64% of APIs experienced a median price decrease of -13%, while 26% recorded a median price increase of +13% (Figure 2). The remaining 10% of APIs maintained relatively stable prices, with price fluctuations within +/-2%. Between 2022 and 2023, API prices dropped by 5% Between 2023 and 2024 they continued to decline by another 4% 64% of APIs experienced a median price decrease of -13% 26% of APIs recorded a median price increase of +13% Price Change: 2024 vs. 2023 Across Therapeutic Groups API prices declined across all major therapeutic groups, reflecting a broad market trend of cost reductions (Figure 3). Among the most notable changes, oncologics experienced the smallest decline of -3%, indicating more stable pricing in this category. Anti-obesity drugs, on the other hand, recorded a significant price drop of -11%, while antihypertensive APIs saw the largest decrease with -12%. These variations highlight differing market pressures across therapeutic areas and emphasize the importance of tracking price trends closely — in both API sales and procurement departments. Oncologics experienced the smallest decline of -3% Anti-obesity drugs recorded a significant price drop of -11% Antihypertensive APIs saw the largest decrease with -12% Deep-Dive: L-Lysine Hydrochloride Price Dynamics and Alternative Sourcing Strategies L-Lysine hydrochloride (HCL), an essential amino acid, experienced a sharp price surge following the market uncertainty created by the EU’s anti-dumping investigation in May 2024 (Figure 4).4 The QYOBO platform provides a detailed landscape of L-Lysine HCL, L-Lysine sulfate and DL-Lysine manufacturers, offering valuable insights such as compliance scores, last inspection records, and regulatory approvals. With suppliers across China, Japan, India, and Europe, buyers can identify the most cost-effective and reliable sourcing options (Figure 5). The QYOBO AI Price Forecast predicts slightly falling prices for L-Lysine HCL, indicating that the EU’s recent announcement of tariffs ended a period of uncertainty and thus had a stabilizing effect on prices. QYOBO AI Price Forecast: Trends in the Next 3 Months The QYOBO AI price forecast analyzes historical data patterns and trends for more than ten years. Using a proprietary machine learning model based on six different algorithms, it calculates how API prices will develop over the next three months and adjusts predictions whenever new data becomes available. QYOBO’s predictive models are self-learning and rigorously back-tested to ensure the highest-quality insights. Our commitment to accuracy means that forecasts are only available for substances where our models have previously demonstrated precise price predictions. As a result, this exclusive capability covers 142 APIs — approximately 14% of the Top 1,000 index — ensuring reliable, data-driven decision-making for our clients. For the next three months, the forecast indicates that 80 APIs are expected to maintain stable prices, while 26 APIs are projected to experience a 2–5% price increase. Meanwhile, 24 APIs are expected to see a 2-5% price decline (Figure 6). 56% of APIs are expected to maintain stable prices (from -2% to +2%) 20% of APIs are projected to experience a price increase 24% of APIs are expected to see a price decline (Figure 7) Conclusion This article is the first in a new series where QYOBO will continue to monitor, update, and post current API price trends and forecasts on a regular basis. By staying ahead of market shifts, we equip pharmaceutical professionals with the latest insights to navigate industry challenges with clarity and confidence. If you are interested in receiving tailored data specific to your business needs, QYOBO offers customized insights that provide a competitive advantage in procurement, pricing strategy, and supplier selection via its QYOBO platform. Contact us to learn more. One Platform. From Insight to Action. See how QYOBO transforms pharma decision-making with AI-driven insights. Get Your Demo Insights Latest company news and developments All News News 19 August 2025 15% U.S. Tariffs on EU Pharmaceuticals: Ireland’s Manufacturing Hub in Focus News 14 May 2025 How Tariff Uncertainty Is Reshaping U.S. Pharma Supply Chains
