February 2025

Amid ongoing shifts in the global pharmaceutical market — including increasing regulatory scrutiny, raw material shortages, and evolving geopolitical tensions — the industry continues to navigate a landscape of uncertainty. In 2024, global API prices have largely trended downward, with QYOBO’s platform tracking these changes for thousands of APIs, excipients, intermediates and chemicals. This analysis describes API price fluctuations, highlights shifts across therapeutic categories, and provides AI-driven price forecasts for the coming months.

QYOBO Price Index: Two-Years Overview

The QYOBO Price Index provides a comparative view of API price trends on a year-on-year basis (Figure 1). Between 2022 and 2023, API prices dropped by 5%, and continued to decline by another 4% between 2023 and 2024 (without adjusting for inflation). This sustained decrease is driven by the post-pandemic stabilization of supply chains, increased competition among API manufacturers, and regulatory efforts to control drug prices.^1,2,3 As pharmaceutical companies adapt to changing market conditions, price transparency and strategic sourcing become increasingly important. QYOBO closely monitors these shifts to deliver timely insights for clients.

API1000 index shows 2023 prices 5% lower than 2022, and 2024 prices 4% lower than 2023.

Price Trend: 2024 vs. 2023 for the Top 1,000 APIs

A deeper analysis of the 1,000 most commonly tracked APIs (which together constitute the API1000 index) on the QYOBO platform indicates that 64% of APIs experienced a median price decrease of -13%, while 26% recorded a median price increase of +13% (Figure 2). The remaining 10% of APIs maintained relatively stable prices, with price fluctuations within +/-2%.

API price trend 2024 vs. 2023 increase for 26%, decreased for 64% and remained stable for 10% of products.

Between 2022 and 2023, API prices dropped by 5%
Between 2023 and 2024 they continued to decline by another 4%
64% of APIs experienced a median price decrease of -13%
26% of APIs recorded a median price increase of +13%

Price Change: 2024 vs. 2023 Across Therapeutic Groups

API prices declined across all major therapeutic groups, reflecting a broad market trend of cost reductions (Figure 3). Among the most notable changes, oncologics experienced the smallest decline of -3%, indicating more stable pricing in this category. Anti-obesity drugs, on the other hand, recorded a significant price drop of -11%, while antihypertensive APIs saw the largest decrease with -12%. These variations highlight differing market pressures across therapeutic areas and emphasize the importance of tracking price trends closely — in both API sales and procurement departments.

API prices fell 3–12% across all therapeutic groups from 2023 to 2024.

Deep-Dive: L-Lysine Hydrochloride Price Dynamics and Alternative Sourcing Strategies

L-Lysine hydrochloride (HCL), an essential amino acid, experienced a sharp price surge following the market uncertainty created by the EU’s anti-dumping investigation in May 2024 (Figure 4).⁴ The QYOBO platform provides a detailed landscape of L-Lysine HCL, L-Lysine sulfate and DL-Lysine manufacturers, offering valuable insights such as compliance scores, last inspection records, and regulatory approvals. With suppliers across China, Japan, India, and Europe, buyers can identify the most cost-effective and reliable sourcing options (Figure 5).

L-Lysine HCL price average December 2024 1.48 USD/kg; forecast 1.5 USD/kg by Mar 2025.

The QYOBO AI Price Forecast predicts slightly falling prices for L-Lysine HCL, indicating that the EU’s recent announcement of tariffs ended a period of uncertainty and thus had a stabilizing effect on prices.

Table of global L-Lysine producers with compliance scores and last inspection dates.

QYOBO AI Price Forecast: Trends in the Next 3 Months

The QYOBO AI price forecast analyzes historical data patterns and trends for more than ten years. Using a proprietary machine learning model based on six different algorithms, it calculates how API prices will develop over the next three months and adjusts predictions whenever new data becomes available.

QYOBO’s predictive models are self-learning and rigorously back-tested to ensure the highest-quality insights. Our commitment to accuracy means that forecasts are only available for substances where our models have previously demonstrated precise price predictions. As a result, this exclusive capability covers 142 APIs — approximately 14% of the Top 1,000 index — ensuring reliable, data-driven decision-making for our clients. For the next three months, the forecast indicates that 80 APIs are expected to maintain stable prices, while 26 APIs are projected to experience a 2–5% price increase. Meanwhile, 24 APIs are expected to see a 2-5% price decline (Figure 6).

Bar chart showing numbers of stable, rising, and falling API prices in next 3 months.

Donut chart showing 56% stable, 24% decreasing, and 20% expected price change of API prices.

56% of APIs are expected to maintain stable prices (from -2% to +2%)
20% of APIs are projected to experience a price increase
24% of APIs are expected to see a price decline (Figure 7)

Conclusion

This article is the first in a new series where QYOBO will continue to monitor, update, and post current API price trends and forecasts on a regular basis. By staying ahead of market shifts, we equip pharmaceutical professionals with the latest insights to navigate industry challenges with clarity and confidence.

If you are interested in receiving tailored data specific to your business needs, QYOBO offers customized insights that provide a competitive advantage in procurement, pricing strategy, and supplier selection via its QYOBO platform. Contact us to learn more.